Sunday, February 17, 2008

40-40 VISION

What are the chances that someone on the Finches will hit at least 40 HR next season?

Well, not too bad. There's David Ortiz, Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones. They have six 40-plus HR between them, four in the last three seasons, though none last year. Make that about a 12 percent chance of one such season, about 3.5 percent two and about 1.8 percent all three.

What are the chances that someone on the Finches will steal at least 40 bases?

About 75 percent. Chone Figgins has three straight seasons at 40-plus swipes, and he's still in his prime.

What are the chances that the Finches will actually make a favorable deal in 2008?

Not that great. The new 40-man roster rule is going to hamper the club's ability to stockpile young talent for trades, and with a veteran club that went to the Series last year taking another shot at a championship, the Finches don't have that much flexibility. They will no doubt spend some of their draft picks to keep their own players. That makes trading, at this stage or later, a little rough.

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